Chips? Not so much, but maybe that will become a running theme. We’ve written about each of those topics recently, and quite continuously publish updates on the factories and batteries. There are three core things to keep in mind when considering Tesla sales growth: Tesla factory expansion, Tesla battery supply, automotive chip supply. Nonetheless, I do still feel pretty good about my Q4 expectations.
has got to be one of my best forecasts ever. As I noted in a short CleanTechnica writer chat about Tesla’s 3rd quarter sales results right after they came out, my Q3 delivery forecast - considering how long ago it was made, all the uncertainties around chips and factories, etc. With that in mind, will my 4th quarter forecast from April 18 be as accurate? Most definitely not, but we’ll revisit that in a moment and see where things stand over the whole year. I forecasted 240,000 deliveries, while official stats from Tesla published yesterday estimate that the total was 241,300, just 1,300 (or 0.5%) more than my forecast.
To my great shock, my April 18 forecast for what Tesla sales would look like in the 3rd quarter of this year was essentially spot on. On April 18, I published my rough guess at what Tesla sales (deliveries) would look like for the rest of the year. Back in early April, I spent some time looking at Tesla’s 1st quarter sales, general Tesla production plans for the rest of the year, Tesla sales forecasts from others, and various statements from Elon Musk and Tesla.
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